Taking the “Red pill”

A Brief Introduction to Mental Models, Self-Protection, and How We Think and Learn

“You take the blue pill, the story ends. You wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes” – Morpheus (Laurence Fishburne) to Neo (Keanu Reeves) in The Matrix (1999)

In the 1999 action movie The Matrix, the character Neo is offered a choice by the mysterious Morpheus. The choice is more challenging than it might initially appear. Watching the movie, we all want our hero to make the choice that he inevitably does because that is going to make a much more interesting story.

This scene provides us with a useful and interesting analogy. To see why this is, I am going to start by asking you some questions.

In the following categories, are you unlimited or are you limited?

Knowledge (do you know all there is to know)
Wisdom (can you apply that knowledge without error, practically and with a perfect understanding of context and long range consequences in every situation)
Skill (are you right now as skilled as a person can be in any domain)
Senses / Perception (can you perceive / sense everything that is affecting you in your environment from moment to moment and hold those perceptions in your awareness while recognizing their relevance to the categories above)

When you think of it like that, it seems obvious. All of us, as human beings, are limited. We cannot even process all of the information coming in from our already limited senses at one time. In fact, even our ability to pay attention to the data that is coming in is finite. Stage magicians use this fact regularly in their performances by managing our attention away from that which they don’t want us to notice in order to accomplish their tricks.

[The Art of Misdirection]

Because of these limitations, all of us develop belief structures modern psychologists refer to as Mental Models (sometimes referred to as Mental Representations) in order to function efficiently in day-to-day life.

The precise definition of Mental Models varies between researchers or disciplines. Jay Wright Forrester in 1971 wrote:

The mental image of the world around us that we carry in our heads is a model. One does not have a city or government, or a country in his head. He has only selected concepts and relationships, which he uses to represent the real system (p.213) (1)

He goes on to say also:

The mental model is fuzzy. It is incomplete. It is imprecisely stated. Furthermore, within one individual, a mental model changes with time and even during the flow of a single conversation (p.213 ) (1)

To further explore this important idea:

Mental models are personal, internal representations of external reality that people use to interact with the world around them. They are constructed by individuals based on their unique life experiences, perceptions, and understandings of the world. Mental models are used to reason and make decisions and can be the basis of individual behaviors. They provide the mechanism through which new information is filtered and stored…

…Because of cognitive limitations, it is neither possible nor desirable to represent every detail that may be found in reality. Aspects that are represented are influenced by a person’s goals and motives for constructing the mental model as well as their background knowledge of existing knowledge structures, which, as noted above, may be conceptualized as ‘mental models existing in long term memory’. Mental models thus play a role in filtering incoming information. The theory of ‘confirmation bias (Klayman and Ha 1989) suggests that people seek information that fits their current understanding of the world. Incoming information may reinforce existing mental models or may be rejected outright. (2)

These quotes are from published studies, so they use some complicated language, but they are useful to demonstrate some of the commonly held (widely agreed upon) principles that make up the definition as I use it in my writing. Let’s simplify a bit by breaking down what you just read.

Mental Models:
(From the first half)

Are personal – This means they are unique to each of us
Are internal – They are in our minds
Are representations of external reality – They reflect our current understanding of reality; they are not objective reality itself.
Are constructed from our unique life experiences, perceptions, and understanding of the world and the environment we live in – None of us comes into this life with full contextually relevant understanding or skill in any subject. We learn and we grow throughout our lives. Our Mental Models are the stories we tell ourselves about how the world works. Example: A robust Mental Model that is pretty consistent with most human beings is that “gravity points down”. This is because we all experience this from an early age. Having the flexibility to create or modify models can be seen in the example of an astronaut. For someone working on the International Space Station for several months, gravity pointing down will be less useful during their stay in a “zero-g” environment.
Are used to reason and make decisions. They can also be the basis of individual behaviors. – This shows both the conscious and pre-conscious impact of our Mental Models. Much of our behavior happens at a pre-conscious level (more on this in future articles). The more sophisticated our Models are, the greater accuracy our perceptions and the more effective our choices and behaviors are.
Are influential to the way we filter and store new information. – Mental Models not only influence what we know, but how we know it / how we learn / how we understand the new information coming in from our environment.

(From the second half)

We all have natural cognitive limitations as human beings. – Not a single one of our Mental Models is a complete or accurate representation of objective reality.
Goals and motives influence our models as well as our current understanding – As seen above, not only does our understanding of our experiences influence our behavior, but it also influences our relationship with new data coming in (how and where it is stored and filtered as it comes in).
Confirmation Bias (https://www.britannica.com/science/confirmation-bias ) , the Dunning-Kruger effect (https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basics/dunning-kruger-effect ) , etc. reflect some of the dangers of losing site of these principles.

Let’s take a quick look at some of the ramifications of these points we have outlined.

Each of us as human beings is unique. In all of history, there is no other person that has had the same life experiences, perceptions, and therefore developed the same understanding of reality as you have. Mental Models are personal, internal subjective representations of objective reality. There are certainly many common elements in shared models. Think of the example of our shared model of how gravity works we mentioned above. With that said, there are also going to be differences. Models will vary with the experiences, culture, etc. that shaped them. One important take away for this is to realize that everyone does not share your models or think about any given topic the way you do.

Another important factor to remember is that every model you have is incomplete. This realization opens the door for the humility necessary to learn or to adapt to a changing environment in an effective way. When this is forgotten, it is easy to slip into something psychologists call “cognitive bias”. We have all ignored or forced information coming in from our senses fit our existing models rather than updating the models when the information is in conflict with our assumptions.

All models are wrong, but some are useful – George E. P. Box

models are wrong, but some are useful – George E. P.

With these ramifications in mind, think about the importance of developing a number of different interrelated models and recognizing the value of updating them and switching which lens you are looking through as you make observations in any given circumstance.

One of the foremost strategic thinkers of our time, Colonel John Boyd wrote about the importance of this idea in his essay Destruction and Creation (September 1976). In the essay, Boyd linked concepts and principals found in seemingly unrelated fields of mathematical logic, physics, and thermodynamics. He linked Godel’s Incompleteness Theorem, Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principal, and the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics to make his point (as well as adding arguments of Polanyi, Popper, and Kuhn). Frans Osinga said of Destruction and Creation:

“The heart of the essay is the discussion about the nature of knowledge…

…The fundamental, unavoidable and all-pervasive presence of uncertainty is the starting point. It leads to the requirement to learn, to develop adequate mental models, and to continually assess the adequacy of these models as the basis for survival for any organism” (emphasis mine) (3)

Boyd saw that adaptability was a key survival trait. He recognized that every Mental Model we developed was outdated as soon as we created it. Not only is our understanding of the infinite complexity of our situation limited, but every action we or others take makes changes to the rapidly evolving situation. Since it is impossible to fully understand every important detail in the moment, the ability to rapidly revise your Mental Models becomes crucial to survival.

This concept is very important and the principals have direct crossover to the science and study of expertise and its development. We will be exploring Boyd’s ideas and the importance of Orientation in his OODA Loop decision making model in greater detail in another article.

With these ideas in mind, let’s return to the analogy offered by the scene in The Matrix. In this scene, the blue pill will allow Neo to go back to sleep and believe whatever he wants to believe. Through the lens of what we have been talking about, he will construct his Mental Models in whatever way makes him feel comfortable or safe without regard to any conflicting information that may be coming in from other sources. If we are honest with ourselves, we will find that we all do (or have done) this to a greater or lesser degree at different times in our lives.

Why is that? Wouldn’t we all want to be totally objective and rational in every area of our lives and to make our decisions with as complete and accurate understanding as possible?

In real life the temptation to take the blue pill is very strong indeed. The blue pill represents the choice to cling to whatever comforting illusions we have… to “believe whatever you want to believe”. By the way, this is not just a modern phenomenon brought on by the information age. Sometime between 965-931 BC, King Solomon (the 3rd King of the nation of Israel) wrote “Every man’s way is right in his own eyes, but the Lord weighs and examines the hearts [of the people and their motives]” (emphasis mine). Almost 3000 years ago, we have Solomon describing the idea of Mental Models, even if the language for the concept as we are using it today hadn’t been invented yet. It is important to remember that no matter how crazy or illogical someone’s opinion may seem to you, it makes sense to them. They are making decisions that are internally consistent with their Mental Models.

From our focus on developing a self-protection strategy, this is one reason why it is important not to make judgments on how someone else will behave based on your own values or Mental Models. A violent criminal actor (VCA) or terrorist predator that you find yourself confronted with is very unlikely to be making decisions using a value system that is consistent with your own. Can you see why it is critical, when considering your options, to take this into account? Having at least a basic understanding of the culture or Mental Models used by your potential adversaries will provide you with far more effective response options.

At the end of the day, most behaviors make sense in some way. They offer some kind of reward, even if it is not the one the decision maker would consciously like to choose. The blue pill offers a feeling of security. Change, uncertainty, or chaos is frightening and uncomfortable. We like to cling to the illusion that we have an inerrant understanding of things because it provides a sense of stability. Notice that I said “…a feeling of security”. That is not the same thing as the reality of security. It is a little like the child pulling the covers over their head because they are afraid of a monster in the closet. It only works because the monster isn’t real.

Let’s stretch that analogy a bit to emphasize this point. Although this example is a little absurd to clarify the idea, think about how this might apply to decisions you make relevant to your own safety. Self-awareness and an ability to honestly assess and re-assess your decisions is important, especially when you are speaking about knowledge and skills you may literally be betting your life on.

Let’s imagine a child develops a fear of monsters in the closet at an early age. This child is convinced that the monsters are real. The child develops the “covers over the head” strategy and for years finds that the strategy works flawlessly. The model is strengthened through repeated use even though the premise is not based on objective reality at all. The child believes the safety comes from the covers pulled over their head, when in reality they are safe because there is no monster in the closet. Years go by and this Mental Model is never revised. The child is now an adult. If this adult used the same strategy against a home invader (arguably also a monster, although this one is real and presents a true threat) they would find it tragically ineffective.

That is the danger of the blue pill. Much like the song of the Sirens in Homer’s Odyssey, the appeal of the blue pill is hard to resist. If the call is heeded, and someone falls to the sweet temptation of the beguiling song, it leads to a negative result. In the case of the sailors at the time of Odysseus in the story, the outcome was a watery death.

That brings us to the red pill. In The Matrix, Morpheus points out to Neo just before he takes the red pill “Remember, all I’m offering is the truth. Nothing else”.

The first step to developing an effective self-protection strategy that fits your unique lifestyle, circumstances, and goals is “taking the red pill”. The truth can be hard sometimes. It doesn’t offer the lie of easy comfort. Instead, it offers something greater, but also something that will challenge you. Like the directional signs when you are traveling, the red pill (a relentless pursuit of truth / improvement) will point the way to greater and greater achievement for as long as you keep traveling on that road.

Effective practice involves staying outside of your comfort zone. It involves using measured standards of performance in order to ensure accurate feedback and, in an ongoing process, to identify your current limiting factors in any skill you are pursuing. You may very likely be called upon to discard some cherished beliefs or “conventional wisdom”. This gets even more difficult if you have invested emotional energy arguing points that you find later to be flawed or false.

Nobody likes to admit they were wrong. The question becomes, is it more important to be comfortable or is it more important to become increasingly capable, confident, adaptable, resilient, and skilled?

Back to the movie, it is also important to note that Neo did not suddenly become all knowing and powerful when he took the red pill. Like all of us, knowledge by itself was not enough. That knowledge had to be repeatedly applied through a rich variety of experiences before it became practically applicable.

There is an important difference between knowledge and skill. For our purposes here, let’s define skill as the ability to apply knowledge or action appropriately and effectively in context with the circumstances you find yourself in. That only comes through experience.

“Although it is tempting to believe that upon knowing how the expert does something, one might be able to “teach” this to novices, this has not been the case [e.g., Klein & Hoffman, 1993]. Expertise is a long term developmental process resulting from rich instrumental experiences in the world and extensive practice. These cannot simply be handed to someone.” (4)

In another great scene from that movie that illustrates this idea, Neo is in “training” and is downloading a bunch of different programs directly into his brain. Through the magic of Hollywood storytelling this is somehow possible. He opens his eyes and declares “I know Kung Fu”. Morpheus responds “Show me” and the two enter a virtual dojo sparring program. Even though, theoretically, Neo has more raw talent and he now “knows” all the moves from the styles he has been “studying”, Morpheus handily kicks his butt in the sparring program. Morpheus has experience. He sees Neo’s potential and is trying to bring it out. Although Neo had more in the way of “raw talent” to work with, it was insufficient when measured practically against Morpheus’ greater experience at applying his skills in the environment they were competing in.

Most of us use seatbelts habitually when we drive anywhere. We don’t do this because we expect to get into a traffic accident. In fact, some people will go their whole lives without ever being in a crash. For those of us who do have that experience, the number of times it happens is generally very low. I know this example is a little worn out, but it does apply. Developing self-protection skills falls into the same kind of category. You don’t develop or devote time to practicing your skills because you expect to be attacked… you do it because, in the unlikely event that you are unfortunate enough to have an encounter with a violent predator(s), the downside of not having the skill is much higher than the cost of the effort it would have taken to be prepared in the first place.

You are not responsible for the actions or decisions of another person, nor can you control them. You are only responsible for your own actions or decisions. Make no mistake however… YOU are responsible for your decisions, actions, and your responses to the actions and decisions of others. Do not waste time with regret if you wish you had started sooner. Just start now. All you have is today. We will cover more about mindset and mental scripts in another article.

For now, it is enough if you are willing to take the “red pill” and see how deep the rabbit hole goes. Like Alice, you may find the journey strange but I suspect you will also find it rewarding in unexpected ways. I know I do.

(1) Forrester, J (1971). Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems, in Collected Papers of J.W. Forrester, pp. 211-244. Cambridge, MA: Wright-Allen Press, Inc.

[2] Mental Models: An Interdisciplinary Synthesis of Theory and Methods

Natalie A. Jones, Helen Ross, Timothy Lynam, Pascal Perez, Anne Leitch

Ecology and Society, Vol. 16, No. 1 (Mar 2011) (13 pages)

https://www.jstor.org/stable/26268859

[3] Frans P.B. Osinga (2007). Science, Strategy, and War: The Strategic Theory of John Boyd p. 131

[4] The Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance (Edited by: K. Anders Ericsson, Neil Charness, Paul J. Feltovich, Robert R. Hoffman). This quote is from Chapter 4, Pg. 46. Paul J. Feltovich, Michael J. Prietula, & K. Anders Ericsson – Studies of Expertise from Psychological Perspectives. Also relevant is the study cited in the quote. Klein, G.A., & Hoffman, R.R. (1993) Seeing the Invisible: Perceptual-Cognitive Aspects of Expertise in M. Rabinowitz [Ed.] Cognitive Science Foundations of Instruction. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

April 23, 2024